Kenya is expected to experience generally sunny and dry weather conditions across many parts of the country during September 2026, although some areas may receive occasional rainfall- Kenya Met Department.
The latest September outlook indicates that rainfall is likely to be below average in several parts of western Kenya, the Rift Valley and parts of northern Kenya, while areas along the Coast and extreme eastern parts of the country are expected to receive near-average rainfall.
Another major feature of the September 2026 weather forecast is the expected warmer-than-average temperatures across the country.
The outlook is particularly important for farmers, livestock keepers, travelers, businesses, water-resource managers and households preparing for changing weather conditions.
The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) provides localized forecasts at county level and also issues shorter-range forecasts that should be consulted as conditions change.
Kenya Weather Forecast for September 2026 at a Glance
| Weather factor | September 2026 prediction |
|---|---|
| Overall weather | Generally sunny and dry in many areas |
| Rainfall | Below average in several western and Rift Valley counties |
| Coastal rainfall | Near average in many coastal areas |
| Temperature | Warmer than average across the country |
| Western Kenya | Mainly dry, with below-average rainfall expected |
| Central Kenya | Sunny and dry with occasional rainfall |
| Nairobi | Generally sunny and dry with occasional rainfall |
| Northeastern Kenya | Mainly sunny and dry, with some areas receiving occasional rainfall |
| Northern Kenya | Mainly sunny and dry in several areas |
| Coast | Near-average rainfall expected in many areas |
| October-November outlook | Increasing rainfall, including potential localized heavy rainfall events |
September 2026 Rainfall Forecast for Kenya
September is expected to be relatively dry across many parts of Kenya.
Below-average rainfall is forecast over Trans Nzoia, Bungoma, Busia, Kakamega, Siaya, Vihiga, Nandi, Uasin-Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, West Pokot, Kisumu, Kericho, Nyamira, Kisii, Bomet, Migori and Homa Bay.
Parts of Narok, Nakuru, Baringo and Turkana are also expected to record below-average rainfall.
This means communities in these areas may experience longer dry spells compared with areas receiving more regular rainfall.
However, below-average rainfall does not necessarily mean that an area will receive no rain. Rainfall can still occur, particularly during localized weather events.
Coastal Kenya Weather Forecast September 2026
The Coast is expected to have a somewhat different rainfall pattern from western and central Kenya.
Lamu, Kilifi, Mombasa, Kwale and the Tana Delta are expected to receive rainfall that is generally near the long-term average.
Extreme eastern parts of Mandera, Wajir and Garissa are also expected to experience near-average rainfall.
Residents and visitors along the Coast should therefore expect a mixture of sunny conditions and occasional rainfall rather than continuous wet weather.
Nairobi Weather Forecast September 2026
For Nairobi, September 2026 is expected to be generally sunny and dry with occasional rainfall.
Similar conditions are expected across parts of the Central region, including:
- Kiambu
- Murang’a
- Nyeri
- Embu
- Meru
- Tharaka-Nithi
- Kirinyaga
- Nyandarua
- Laikipia
Although rainfall is expected to be limited compared with wetter periods, occasional showers may still occur.
For residents, commuters and businesses, the main message is that September is expected to remain predominantly dry, but short-term forecasts should still be checked before making plans around outdoor activities.
KMD regularly publishes updated county and short-range forecasts, including forecasts specifically covering Nairobi and other counties.
Western Kenya Weather Forecast September 2026
Western Kenya is among the areas expected to experience below-average rainfall during September.
The forecast covers counties including:
- Trans Nzoia
- Bungoma
- Busia
- Kakamega
- Siaya
- Vihiga
- Nandi
- Uasin-Gishu
- Elgeyo Marakwet
- Kisumu
- Kericho
- Nyamira
- Kisii
- Bomet
- Migori
- Homa Bay
Farmers and livestock keepers in these counties should therefore pay close attention to changing rainfall patterns.
A below-average rainfall outlook can affect crop growth, pasture availability, water supplies and agricultural planning.
However, seasonal and monthly forecasts describe broader patterns rather than guaranteeing the weather on a particular day.
Eastern Kenya Weather Forecast September 2026
Parts of eastern Kenya are expected to experience generally sunny and dry conditions with occasional rainfall.
The areas include:
- Machakos
- Makueni
- Kitui
- Embu
- Tharaka-Nithi
- Meru
- Kirinyaga
- parts of Garissa
- parts of Wajir
- parts of Mandera
These conditions could mean extended dry periods interrupted by occasional rainfall.
Northern Kenya Weather Forecast September 2026
Northern Kenya is expected to remain predominantly dry.
Isiolo, Turkana and Samburu are expected to experience mainly sunny and dry conditions.
Other northern and northeastern areas, including parts of Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera and Garissa, are expected to experience generally sunny and dry weather, although some areas may receive occasional rainfall.
These conditions are important for pastoral communities because changes in rainfall can influence pasture and water availability.
September 2026 Temperature Forecast
One of the most notable parts of the September 2026 outlook is the prediction of warmer-than-average mean temperatures across the country.
This means temperatures are generally expected to remain above the long-term average during the month.
The warmer conditions may be noticeable in both dry and relatively wetter areas.
People should remember, however, that a warmer-than-average monthly outlook does not mean every day will be unusually hot. Temperatures can vary considerably from one day to another and between different parts of the country.
For precise daily conditions, KMD’s daily and five-day forecasts are more appropriate. KMD describes its five-day forecast as providing daily predictions for morning, afternoon and night, including rainfall probabilities, temperature ranges and wind conditions.
September-October-November 2026 Kenya Weather Outlook
Looking beyond September, the broader September-October-November 2026 outlook points toward a significant change in rainfall conditions as the year progresses.
Several parts of Kenya are expected to experience relatively dry conditions during September, followed by widespread rainfall in October and November.
Localized heavy rainfall events may also occur during the wetter period.
This transition is particularly important because the weather pattern expected in September is considerably different from the anticipated rainfall pattern later in the season.
Western Kenya: September to November Outlook
Several western counties are expected to experience below-average rainfall in September before rainfall increases later in the season.
These include:
- Trans Nzoia
- Bungoma
- Busia
- Kakamega
- Siaya
- Vihiga
- Nandi
- Uasin-Gishu
- Elgeyo Marakwet
- Kisumu
- Kericho
- Nyamira
- Kisii
- Bomet
- Migori
- Homa Bay
- Narok
- West Pokot
- Turkana
The forecast points toward above-average rainfall in October and November in several of these areas.
This means communities should not assume that September’s dry conditions will continue throughout the entire three-month period.
Coast Weather Outlook for October and November 2026
The Coast is expected to have near-average rainfall during September, followed by above-average rainfall during October and November.
The areas highlighted include:
- Kwale
- Kilifi
- Mombasa
- Lamu
- parts of Tana River
- parts of Garissa
- parts of Wajir
- parts of Mandera
The expected increase in rainfall later in the period could bring wetter conditions compared with September.
Localized heavy rainfall events are possible, meaning some areas could experience significantly heavier rain over short periods.
Central Kenya and Nairobi Outlook
Parts of Central Kenya and Nairobi are expected to experience mainly sunny and dry conditions with occasional rainfall during September.
The areas include:
- Nairobi
- Kiambu
- Murang’a
- Nyeri
- Embu
- Meru
- Tharaka-Nithi
- Kirinyaga
- Nyandarua
- Laikipia
- Machakos
- Makueni
- Kitui
The September pattern should therefore not be interpreted as a prediction of continuous dry weather. Occasional rainfall remains possible.
Kenya Weather Forecast September 2026: County Summary
| County/Region | September 2026 Weather Outlook | Rainfall Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| Nairobi | Sunny and dry with occasional rainfall | Generally near/drier conditions |
| Mombasa | Sunny with occasional rainfall | Near average |
| Kilifi | Sunny with occasional rainfall | Near average |
| Kwale | Sunny with occasional rainfall | Near average |
| Lamu | Sunny with occasional rainfall | Near average |
| Kisumu | Generally dry | Below average |
| Kakamega | Generally dry | Below average |
| Bungoma | Generally dry | Below average |
| Busia | Generally dry | Below average |
| Siaya | Generally dry | Below average |
| Vihiga | Generally dry | Below average |
| Kisii | Generally dry | Below average |
| Nyamira | Generally dry | Below average |
| Kericho | Generally dry | Below average |
| Bomet | Generally dry | Below average |
| Uasin-Gishu | Sunny/dry periods | Below average |
| Trans Nzoia | Sunny/dry periods | Below average |
| Nakuru | Sunny and dry with occasional rainfall | Below average in parts |
| Narok | Mainly sunny and dry with occasional rainfall | Below average in parts |
| Baringo | Mainly sunny and dry | Below average in parts |
| Turkana | Mainly sunny and dry | Below average |
| Samburu | Mainly sunny and dry | Generally dry |
| Isiolo | Mainly sunny and dry | Generally dry |
| Marsabit | Sunny and dry with occasional rainfall | Generally dry |
| Machakos | Sunny and dry with occasional rainfall | Generally dry |
| Kitui | Sunny and dry with occasional rainfall | Generally dry |
| Makueni | Sunny and dry with occasional rainfall | Generally dry |
| Garissa | Sunny and dry with occasional rainfall | Near average in some areas |
| Wajir | Mainly sunny and dry | Near average in parts |
| Mandera | Mainly sunny and dry | Near average in extreme eastern areas |
What the September 2026 Forecast Means for Farmers
The expected rainfall pattern has important implications for agriculture.
Farmers in areas where below-average rainfall is expected may need to closely monitor soil moisture and local rainfall developments.
At the same time, farmers should avoid making decisions based solely on a monthly forecast. Actual rainfall can vary considerably within a county.
The expected wetter conditions during October and November also mean farmers should prepare for a possible transition from relatively dry September conditions to increased rainfall.
KMD’s seasonal forecasts are specifically intended to support sectors including agriculture, water management, disaster preparedness and other climate-sensitive activities.
What Kenyans Should Expect in September 2026
Overall, the September weather outlook can be summarized in four major points:
1. Mostly dry weather
Large parts of Kenya are expected to experience generally sunny and dry conditions.
2. Below-average rainfall in western Kenya
A substantial part of western Kenya is expected to receive less rainfall than the long-term average.
3. Near-average rainfall at the Coast
Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale and Lamu are expected to experience rainfall close to their normal September levels.
4. Warmer-than-average temperatures
Temperatures are expected to remain warmer than average across the country.
Will Kenya Receive Heavy Rainfall in September 2026?
September is expected to be relatively dry in many parts of Kenya, but this does not completely eliminate the possibility of heavy or localized rainfall events.
Weather conditions can change rapidly, and rainfall can be highly localized.
For this reason, Kenyans should distinguish between a monthly outlook and a daily weather forecast.
A monthly forecast provides a broad picture of expected weather patterns, while shorter-range forecasts provide more useful information for specific days.
KMD currently provides daily, five-day and county-level forecasts, which can be checked as September progresses.
Kenya Weather Forecast October and November 2026
The broader outlook suggests that October and November could bring a major shift in rainfall conditions.
Several parts of Kenya that are expected to remain relatively dry in September are projected to experience increased rainfall later in the season.
There is also a possibility of localized heavy rainfall events during October and November.
This makes it important for households, farmers, transport operators and businesses to remain alert to updated forecasts as the wetter period approaches.
Important Weather Advisory for Kenyans
Weather forecasts are predictions, not guarantees.
A monthly forecast cannot determine exactly when or where rain will fall on a particular day. Conditions can also change as new atmospheric information becomes available.
Therefore, Kenyans should check updated KMD forecasts, especially before making decisions involving travel, farming, outdoor activities, livestock, water management or other weather-sensitive activities.
KMD’s official forecast system provides regularly updated weather information at national, county and shorter-range levels.
Frequently Asked Questions About Kenya Weather in September 2026
Is September 2026 expected to be rainy in Kenya?
Not across the whole country. Many parts of Kenya are expected to experience generally sunny and dry conditions, while some areas will receive occasional rainfall.
Which parts of Kenya are expected to receive below-average rainfall in September 2026?
Below-average rainfall is expected across several western and Rift Valley counties, including Trans Nzoia, Bungoma, Busia, Kakamega, Siaya, Vihiga, Nandi, Uasin-Gishu, Kisumu, Kericho, Kisii, Nyamira, Bomet, Migori and Homa Bay, among others.
Will Nairobi receive rain in September 2026?
Nairobi is expected to experience generally sunny and dry conditions with occasional rainfall.
What will the weather be like in Mombasa in September 2026?
Mombasa is expected to experience generally sunny conditions with occasional rainfall, with rainfall overall expected to be near average.
Will temperatures be hot in September 2026?
The September outlook indicates that mean temperatures are expected to be warmer than average across Kenya.
Will Kenya receive more rain in October and November 2026?
The broader September-October-November outlook indicates that several parts of Kenya are expected to experience more widespread rainfall during October and November, including the possibility of localized heavy rainfall events.
Where can I get updated Kenya weather forecasts?
The Kenya Meteorological Department provides daily, five-day, weekly, county and seasonal weather forecasts. Its forecast pages are updated regularly as new information becomes available.
Final Summary
The Kenya weather forecast for September 2026 points to a predominantly sunny and dry month across much of the country.
Western Kenya and several Rift Valley counties are expected to experience below-average rainfall, while the Coast is likely to receive near-average rainfall. Nairobi and much of Central and Eastern Kenya are expected to experience sunny and dry conditions with occasional rainfall.
The country is also expected to experience warmer-than-average temperatures.
Looking ahead, the September-October-November outlook suggests a transition toward more widespread rainfall in October and November, with some localized heavy rainfall events possible.
For the most accurate information, Kenyans should continue checking updated Kenya Meteorological Department forecasts because weather conditions can change and short-range forecasts provide more precise information than a monthly outlook.